sharpjuice

Lines Are A Changin'

The college football lines are moving fast and furious, in some cases over 5 points.

The most noticeable example is the Arizona St. - Temple game. Temple announced yesterday they are losing 7 players to academics this season, including 5 starters. The line quickly jumped from -26 to -31 in favor of Arizona St. The Sun Devils were already expected to thump the Owls in the desert heat with the vertical passing game, but now it might just get even uglier.

In most cases, however, it is the sharp money moving the lines, not just the news. Some examples where the money is moving the number:
Cincy went from -12 to -8.5 over Eastern Michigan
Ohio St. dropped from -17 to -13.5 over Miami, OH
Colorado moved from -9.5 to -7 against rival Colorado St.
USC pumped up from -31.5 to -35 over Hawaii
Bowling Green started at +7.5 a few weeks ago, moved to +5 last week, and is now +2.5 against Wisconsin
Va Tech went from -6 to -3 over NC St.

Watch the NCAA lines carefully and make sure you don't lose your value if they move too much. For example, I LOVED Miami, OH at +17, but at less than 2 TDs, it starts to even out and you start to like the other side. Like anything that you buy, don't overpay.

I'll be back tomorrow with my first college picks.

Pac 10 Preview

The Pac 10 is already a race for 2nd place. No one, and I mean NO ONE, has anyone other than USC at the top of the pile. In fact, you need to lay $25 to win a $1 on the Trojans to win the conference. Hopefully Leinart is not still sulking over the $50 million contract he left on the table to stay at USC for one more year of chasing tail. The real debate is whether Oregon, Cal, Arizona St., or maybe even my UCLA Bruins can sneak into 2nd place (I like the Ducks). Washington St. seems solid and Mike Stoops has Arizona on the rise (relatively).  Oregon St. is declining fast with all the lost talent, and Stanford and Washington are bringing up the tail.

Terry Bowden (Yahoo) and Stewart Mandel (SI) both break down the Pac 10.

Danny Sheridan's odds to win the Pac 10:
Southern California 1:25
California 6:1
Arizona State 6:1
Oregon 10:1
UCLA 15:1
Oregon State 25:1
Washington State 25:1
Stanford 50:1
Washington 75:1
Arizona 100:1

Only 8 more days to kick-off!

Big 12 Preview

It appears that the Oklahoma domination in the Big 12 may come to end. Texas is the odds-on front-runner in 2005, and looks to be a favorite to compete for the national championship behind the prolific Vince Young. While upstarts Iowa St., Texas Tech, and Texas A&M are all poised to chomp at the heels of the Longhorns and Sooners, the Big 12 is looking pretty soft. The traditional powers of Nebarska, Kansas St., and Colorado appear more vulnerable than ever.  Missouri, Oklahoma St., and Kansas aspire for mediocrity, and Baylor could be one of the worst teams in the country.

Terry Bowden (Yahoo) and Stewart Mandel (SI) both break down the Big 12.

Vegas odds to win the Big 12:

Texas	4/3
Oklahoma	9/4
Texas A&M	25/2
Texas Tech.	25/2
Colorado	16/1
Missouri	16/1
Iowa State	16/1
Nebraska	16/1
Kansas State	25/1
Oklahoma State	25/1
Kansas	60/1
Baylor	400/1

Around The Horn - AFC West

The AFC West is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. I have read several predictions, and almost every team shows up in every spot depending on the analysis. The Chargers separate for me because they are the only team with a solid, disciplined defense.  The Raiders and Chiefs will light up the board, but can they stop anyone?  The Broncos probably will be able to run the ball, but they have almost an entirely new defense.  Anyone can end up anywhere.  Pro Football Weekly breaks down the AFC West on ESPN.com.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the AFC West:
Chiefs 9.5 EVEN
Broncos 8.5 -145
Chargers 8 -135
Raiders 8 -110

Chiefs
There is no doubt the Chiefs can score, and score in bunches.  They loaded up the defense with the acquistions of Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight, and Carlos Hall.  The main question is when will the D have the chemistry?  I think they will pull it together and be closer to the playoff team of 2003. Tmoney says 9-7.

Broncos
Mike Shanahan's very questionable personnel moves will catch up to him this year. The defense is almost completely retooled and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes them a while to get their sea legs.  The offense is the same for most part, and compentent in moving the chains.  In the end, they will lose the close ones. Tmoney says 6-10.

Chargers
I don't think we will see the same dominance of last year, but the Chargers will be solid as Marty instills discipline on both sides of the ball. The offense needs Antonio Gates back to add the extra dimension from last year.  The Chargers should be right in the thick of things at the top of the West. Tmoney says 10-6.

Raiders
The Raiders got better on offense and it is hard to find a hole.  There is no doubt they will score.  The defense returns to a base 4-3 which is better suited for the personnel. While they will give up points, I like the Raiders to compete for a chance at the playoffs. Tmoney says 8-8.

More
Yahoo AFC West
Sporting News AFC West (via Yahoo)

Around The Horn - NFC West

We make our way out west to one of the least exciting divisions in the NFL. For me, there is no clear favorite, although I am pulling for the Cardinals. The Seahawks seem to have the least number of questions, but they consistently are mediocre.  Mike Martz is an egotistical bozo, and that doesn't help his spotty O-line and porous defense.  The 49ers simply don't have the bodies.  The Cardinals are the trendy pick.  Pro Football Weekly breaks down the NFC West on ESPN.com.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the NFC West:
Seahawks 8.5 -135
Rams 8.5 -110
Cardinals 7.5 -125
49ers 4.5 -110

Seahawks
On paper, the Seahawks appear to be the best team in the West. The offense is solid with the exception of a receiving corp that is known for its drops.  The defense lost some key contributors, but has young talent. 2005 will be another battle with 0.500. Tmoney says 9-7.

Rams
The Rams just don't have the components for a winning NFL formula.  The offensive line is like an open strainer, and the defense is made up of undersized underperformers. I can't see how this team can be competitive with the top teams in the league. Tmoney says 7-9.

Cardinals
I have a soft spot for the underdogs and I have always quietly pulled for the Cardinals.  The defense is very solid again. Kurt Warner and the young WRs should be able to muster a few more points to win those close ones. I am going to jump on the bandwagon and I think they may be able to take the division. Tmoney says 9-7.

49ers
There is not much to say about the 49ers. They are rebuilding and don't have the talent at most key positions. They will be lucky to win 3 games this year. Tmoney says 3-13.

More
Yahoo NFC West
Sporting News NFC West (via Yahoo)

Big East Preview

The Big East backfilled Miami, Virginia Tech, BC, and Temple with Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Connecticut, hardly an even swap.  The result is a relatively weak BCS conference.  Nonetheless, many are picking Louisville not only to win the Big East, but to compete in the national top 10.  Here is a complete preview from Terry Bowden on Yahoo.

Vegas has Louisville as the heavy favorites to win the conference:
Louisville         2/9
Pittsburgh        13/2
West Virginia   17/1
Rutgers            17/1
Syracuse          19/1
South Florida    30/1
Connecticut      40/1
Cincinnati        60/1

I, of course, will be pulling for Dave Wannstedt to return Pitt to its glory.

Around The Horn - AFC South

The Colts looks to be the class of the division once again, but Jacksonville is closing ground quickly. The Texans seem to have hit a ceiling after 3 years, and the Titans have more questions than answers.  Pro Football Weekly breaks down the AFC South on ESPN.com.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the AFC South:
Colts 11.5 -115
Jaguars 8.5 -130
Texans 7.5 Even
Titans 6.5 Even

Colts
Their is no doubt that the Colts will once again have an offensive machine this year, barring any significant injuries.  The question is if they can stop anyone on defense, where they have actually gone younger versus adding veterans. They will be tough to stop, and toward the top of the AFC.  Tmoney says 12-4.

Jaguars
The Jaguars appear to me to possibly be better than they were last year. The defense is very solid and they added depth to the front seven.  The offense had trouble scoring last year, but they have several very athletic receivers.  The biggest potential hole is at RB, where Fred Taylor's health is in question and there is little depth behind him.  However, the D will help them challenge for the division. Tmoney says 10-6.

Texans
The Texans do not look materially different on paper than they did one year ago. Most importantly, they did not address their weakness on the offensive line, which has given up 140 sacks over the past 3 years. The defense looks marginally better, but I expect more mediocrity in 2005. Tmoney says 7-9.

Titans
The Titans are a combination of aging veterans and inexperienced youngsters. With less than half their starters back from last year, they could compete for the league's worst record. Tmoney says 4-12.

More
Yahoo AFC South
Sporting News AFC South (via Yahoo)

ACC Preview

With the formal addition of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, the ACC is suddenly a very solid conference. Many experts, including former coach Terry Bowden, as well as the conference coaches, like the Hokies to meet the Seminoles for the title. However, the oddmakers have Miami as the favorites to win the conference.

Miami	2/1
Florida State	5/2
Virginia Tech	5/2
Virginia	11/1
Georgia Tech	11/1
Boston College	12/1
NC State	12/1
Maryland	13/1
Clemson	13/1
North Carolina	20/1
Wake Forest	66/1
Duke	150/1

Regardless of who you like as the favorite, one thing is sure, this is a conference of defense. Last year, 9 of the 12 ACC teams were in the top 31 in the nation in total defense - NC St. #1, Virginia Tech #4, Florida St. #7, Georgia Tech #12, Virginia #18, Maryland #21, Clemson #26, Miami #28, and BC #31. Many of these teams also have trouble scoring, so you might keep an eye on the UNDERS throughout the season as these teams play each other.

Around The Horn - NFC South

The Panthers could be chewing on the Falcons heels in 2005, we will wait and see which version of the Saints come out, while the Bucs are poised for the basement again. Pro Football Weekly breaks down the NFC South.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the NFC South:
Falcons 9.5 Even
Panthers 9 -130
Saints 7.5 -140
Bucs 7 -125

Falcons
The Falcons went to the NFC title game with no passing game, and a sometimes porous run defense. If Vick can get more comfortable in the west coast offense, while continuing the dominance of the leagues #1 running game, the Falcons will be in contention for the conference once again.  Tmoney says 10-6.

Panthers
The Panthers nearly made the playoffs last year despite starting 1-7.  If the team can avoid injuries, especially on the O-line, their downfall in 2004, they can be the winning team they were in 2003. Tmoney says 10-6.

Saints
Despite the dysfunction bred by coach Haslett, the Saints seem to be on the cusp of always breaking through.  They almost made the playoffs in 2004 with the leagues worst defense.  They have the young talent to compete, but this could be Haslett's last chance. Tmoney says 8-8.

Bucs
The Bucs were old and talentless last year, and I just don't see how they improved.  You have to love Gruden, but I don't think he has much to work with in 2005. Tmoney says 5-11.

More
Yahoo NFC South
Sporting News NFC South

Around The Horn - AFC North

I am very biased in the AFC North. For those who don't know, I am a Steeler fanatic, born and bred in Pittsburgh.  I have lived the disappointment of 1-4 in AFC Championship games in the last 10 years(the 4 losses - Patriots twice, Broncos in the Kordell era, and Chargers, all at home). I am such a fan, that I am actually an honest critic.  The Ravens and Bengals will gain ground in the AFC North and push the Steelers for the division title.  Pro Football Weekly breaks down the AFC North.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the AFC North:
Ravens 10 -115
Steelers 9.5 -145
Bengals 8 -130
Browns 4.5 -145

Ravens
The Ravens are the favorites in Vegas currently to win the North.  The defense should be equally as solid as in the past. The addition of Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton at WR combined with the maturity of Boller is supposed to propel the offense forward. I am still not sold on Boller, but they will be very solid.  The Ravens will be in for a tough battle for the division until the very end. Tmoney says 10-6.

Steelers
The Steelers definitely have stepped back in talent this year.  I am most concerned with the loss of Vincent and Ross on the right side of the line.  There is no depth at all in case of any OL injury, their downfall in 2003.  The defense will be stout, and Roethlisberger will be improved.  Everybody will be gunning for the Steelers, but they could still win the division if they stay healthy. Tmoney says 11-5.

Bengals
The Bengals are going to be very good this year.  They will score with anyone.  The big question is can the defense stop the run?  Collinsworth says they will go to the Superbowl, but I think the Bengals will squeeze into the playoffs as a wildcard.  Tmoney says 9-7.

Browns
Butch Davis was right in there with Tice as the Bozo coach of the Year. Crennel is a huge improvement, and Phil Savage will build great talent in time.  Unfortunately, the cupboard is bare this year. Tmoney says 4-12.

More
Football Outsiders on North Divisions
Yahoo AFC North
Sporting News AFC North