sharpjuice

Halloween at Heinz Field

Ravens at Steelers
It started at -9 and I have now seen at as high as -12.  This is a bitter rivalry, but the Ravens D is depleted with its two best players out, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  The Ravens are averaging a league worst 11.6 PPG this year and it ain't getting better tonight on the road against a tough Steeler defense.  I usually don't bet the Steelers, and rarely with conviction, but I expect them to roll the Ravens.  The Steelers are 11-1 ATS at home on Monday Night Football in the Cowher era.  I am laying the wood on the Steelers.
Tmoney says Steelers -11.5

Tmoney NFL Week 8 Picks

It's Halloween weekend. Put on your costumes and let's make some money.

Games I Am Betting

Dolphins at Saints
The Saints (and the refs) burned me last week, but I will try again.  New Orleans returns to their home state and you have to believe there will be an emotional lift.  The Dolphins are starting to show their true colors and I like the Saints to win one for the Gipper.
Tmoney says Saints -2.5

Chiefs at Chargers
The Chargers must win, but 3/4 of their linebackers and 3/5 of their OL are on the injury list. The Chiefs have had the extra few days and will be ready to go in a key AFC battle.
Tmoney says Chiefs +6.5

Eagles at Broncos
The Eagles need to start playing.  It seems that the Broncos play every game at home and they are certainly better a mile high.  But I like the Eagles to start to kick it in.
Tmoney says Eagles +3.5

Best of the Rest for the Office Pool, but Not Betting 'em

Browns at Texans
It's about time for the Texans first win.
Tmoney says Texans -2

Bears at Lions
I like the points in an ugly battle.
Tmoney says Bears +3

Packers at Bengals
I am not sure the Bengals are elite.
Tmoney says Packers +9

Redskins at Giants
I like the Giants, although they never cover for me.
Tmoney says Giants -2.5

Vikings at Panthers
The Vikes might be on the rise.
Tmoney says Vikings +8

Jags at Rams
The Rams can scam the refs against the Saints, but the Jags are a real team (and off the bye).
Tmoney says Jags -3

Raiders at Titans
I like the Titans at home with McNair back, the defensive backs are down for the Raiders.
Tmoney says Titans +2

Cardinals at Cowboys
9 seems like too many, even for the woeful Cards.
Tmoney says Cards +9

Bucs at 49ers
Its hard to ever pick the 49ers again, but 11 seems juicy at home with Simms at the wheel.
Tmoney says 49ers +11

Bills at Patriots
The bye week rest for the Pats scares me, but I think the Bills are closer to the Pats than 9.
Tmoney says Bills +9

Ravens at Steelers
Check back Monday!

Trick or Treat Picks

Ohio St. at Minnesota
Ohio St. is clearly a better team than Minnesota.  They will lock down the Gophers offense and the Buckeyes will be able to score. Remember Penn St.-Minnesota? This is my game of the week.
Tmoney says Ohio St. -3.5

Georgia at Florida
A new QB for Georgia means not many points. The Georgia D will keep them in it, but it will be a struggle for either team to score. Your typical SEC battle.
Tmoney says UNDER 41

Mississippi at Auburn
Ole Miss isn't lighting anyone up, but their D is solid, ranking 13th nationally in scoring.  Auburn is solid, but their O struggles at times and nearly 3 TDs is too much against the Mississippi D.
Tmoney says Ole Miss +20.5

Missouri at Kansas
Missouri has been gaining momentum and I like how Brad Smith can open it up. Kansas has a decent D (31st in scoring), but has no flash on offense (95th). I like Mizzou to win cleanly.
Tmoney says Missouri -5.5

Arizona at Oregon St.
Oregon St. is better than advertised. They beat a good Cal team on the road and have shown they can score in most games.  I love Mike Hass, he is going to be a good NFL player. Arizona is trying a new QB to shake things up, but this just won't help. Oregon St. is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 against Arizona.
Tmoney says Oregon St. -10

NFL Picks Around The Web Week 8

Week 8 picks and analysis around the web:

Peter King
USA Today
Yahoo Experts
Sportsline Experts
Harmon Forecast on Sportsline
ESPN Experts
NFL.com game-by-game Analysis

Low Scoring Thursday

Virginia Tech takes on its 2nd consecutive Thursday night game, this time at home in Blacksburg.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
The Hokies have been rolling, 6-1 ATS this year. We made some easy money off them last Thursday against Maryland. The Boston College Eagles roll into town off their bye week.  This is a matchup of elite defenses. Neither team gives up many yards or points, 274 YPG and 14 PPG for BC (7th in nation) and 238 YPG and 9 PPG for VaTech (2nd in the nation).  BC leaked a bit giving up 30 to Wake Forest last time out, but I believe that was an anomaly with Kiwanuka out (he is back tonight). The 14 pt line could go either way, so I am playing the total. This will be yet another ACC defensive battle. The last 3 ACC Thursday's have gone UNDER and it will again tonight.
Tmoney Says UNDER 45.5

College Football Picks Around The Web Week 9

College football picks for weekend of October 30 from around the web:

USA Today
Yahoo Experts
Sportsline Experts
Harmon Forecast on Sportsline
Tony Mejia on Sportsline

TMQB 7

The good news is that I went 9-5 in NFL picks. The bad news is that I went 1-5 in NFL games that I bet. As Rob at Sedge Court Journal would say, "I shat the bed". The 5-2 college slate kept me in it.  The lesson learned, don't bet on bad teams. The 49ers, Dolphins, Jets, and Saints won't make you consistent money.

Random Thoughts

• I was glad to see the Broncos lose.
• Texans-Browns will be the game of the week next week.
• Aren't the Colts lucky to play the Texans and Titans twice each? They haven't played anyone yet.
• I was relieved that my Steelers recovered.  The Bengals haven't played anyone either.
• Isn't the NFC Norris an exciting division? Right.
• The NFC East will be a dog fight top to bottom.
• The Lions keep winning every other game.
• The AFC East is in need of a leader.
• The Chiefs in for the Chargers in my AFC Playoff Picks - Pats, Colts, Steelers, Jags, Bengals, Chiefs
• The Giants and Bears (at 8-8) debut in my NFC Playoff Picks also - Eagles, Giants, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Bucs
• I will repeat, the Alabama-Tennessee OVER bet was the worst bet of the year.  The Auburn redemption bet made up for it.
• UCLA #8 in the country with that defense?
• I like the SEC as a conference, great athletes on defense.
• Early leans - Bears (+3), Bills (+9), and Eagles (+3.5).

Weekly Tally
NFL Games That I Bet: 1-5
NFL Overall: 9-5
NCAA: 5-2

YTD
NFL: 55-45-2 overall, 21-20 in games that I bet
NCAA: 34-29

Dome Defense

After bragging about betting the right games, I won all 9 NFL games I didn't bet and went 1-4 on games that I bet. I can still win the pool, but I need the Jets to cover.

Jets at Falcons
The 2005 Jets seem to be just a shadow of the 2004 Jets. In addition to Vinny for Chad, Kevin Mawae it out and Ty Law and Justin McCareins are questionable. You would think there would be a heavy lean to the Falcons. However, the Jets need to have this one and I think this will be a good defensive battle.  My emotion of needing the Jets to win the pool helps as well.
Tmoney says Jets +7.5

Late Bet

I rarely ever put in the late frustration bet, but that Alabama-Tennessee OVER 38 could have been the worst bet of all year. OVER 10 wouldn't have worked.  I need to redeem myself in the SEC.

Auburn at LSU
Auburn has quietly gone 5-1 after losing its opener.  This should be a typical SEC battle and I like the Auburn D to keep 'em in it.  +6 seems like good value.
Tmoney says Auburn +6

Tmoney NFL Week 7 Picks

I have had 3 great weeks and 3 not-so-great weeks.  The good news is that I am betting the right games even when I lose overall. Let's see if week 7 is lucky.

Games I Am Betting

Saints at Rams
The Rams are dinged up and I don't like their D much. The Saints showed some moxy last week and they are always tough on the road in domes.
Tmoney says Saints +3

49ers at Redskins
If this was a clear elite team against the 49ers, I can see the 13. But the Redskins aren't the Colts so I don't see how you can justify such a number.
Tmoney says 49ers +13

Broncos at Giants
I may be drinking the Giant Kool-aid but I like 'em.  The Broncos are typically a different team on the road so I will ride with my emotion and see if Eli can outgone Jake.
Tmoney says Giants -2

Titans at Cardinals
The Titans are dinged up and the Cards had the bye week. It's that simple.
Tmoney says Cards -3

Best of the Rest for the Office Pool, but Not Betting 'em

Lions at Browns
This sure will be fun. I'll take the points in the battle of the inept.
Tmoney says Lions +3

Packers at Vikings
Under normal circumstances, you would expect the home team favored by at least 3. Can the Vikes get it up?
Tmoney says Vikings +1.5

Steelers at Bengals
It is a must win and Ben is back.
Tmoney says Steelers +1

Chargers at Eagles
The Chargers are solid and I will take the points.
Tmoney says Chargers +3.5

Colts at Texans
Until the Texans prove otherwise...
Tmoney says Colts -15.5

Ravens at Bears
This will be black and blue, take the home team.
Tmoney says Bears -1

Bills at Raiders
The Raiders have to break through at some point.
Tmoney says Raiders -3

Cowboys at Seahawks
The Boyz defense is for real.
Tmoney says Cowboys +3.5

Jets at Falcons
Check back Monday!