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Tmoney NFL Week 4 Picks

I came crashing to the ground last week after opening up with two 11 win weeks, I dropped a 4 on you.  This week doesn't get easier, so watch out.

Games I Am Betting

Broncos at Jags
The Broncos are not very good in Florida (remember week 1), and they are playing on a short week on the road. The Jags have carried me to 3 wins in 3 weeks, so lets ride for the 4th.
Tmoney says Jags -4

Vikes at Falcons
The Vikes are better than their record.  It is going to take some time for the new defense to gel and they will get better as the season goes on. Daunte will go toe-to-toe with Vick.
Tmoney says Vikes +6

Jets at Ravens
Brooks Bollinger versus Anthony Wright. I would rather watch paint dry. This will be a defensive battle and a TD is too much.
Tmoney says Jets +7

Best of the Rest for the Office Pool, but Not Betting 'em

Colts at Titans
I was leaning Titans but Indy is 4-0 ATS and SU against the Titans in the last 2 years.
Tmoney says Colts -7

Chargers at Pats
I am bitter from last week vs the Steelers.
Tmoney says Chargers +6

Texans at Bengals
I am now a believer in Carson.
Tmoney says Bengals -9.5

Bills at Saints
Home at last? However, the Saints are banged up, check out how many starters are on the injury report.
Tmoney says Bills PICK

Eagles at Chiefs
Home team wins if Roaf plays.
Tmoney says Chiefs -1.5

Lions at Bucs
The Bucs stop here.
Tmoney says Lions +7

Seahawks at Skins
2500 miles is too much.
Tmoney says Skins -2

Rams at Giants
A good shootout.
Tmoney says Rams +3

Cowboys at Raiders
Blackhole magic. I like the Raiders to win their first.
Tmoney says Raiders -3.5

Cards vs 49ers in Mexico
How about some salsa? 49ers are 7-3 ATS in last 10 vs Cards.
Tmoney says 49ers +3

Packers at Panthers
Check back Monday!

Saturday Pickin's

Virginia Tech at West Virginia
The Hokies are starting to flex their muscles. Many are saying they might be right there at the end. I agree their defense is damn good, and young Ron Mexico is starting to show some flash. West Virginia has struggled on offense and it won't help going up against the Hokie wall. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS against ACC opponents over the last 3 years. The Hokies will roll over the mountains into Morgantown and roll over the Mountaineers.
Tmoney says VaTech -10.5

South Florida at Miami
The Bulls are coming off their biggest win in their young team's history (they only started a football program in 1997). Now they have to roll into the Orange Bowl and take on the Canes, no easy task. Are they really that good? They are only giving up 13.2 ppg, which is a surprising number. However, this is Miami. I can't see South Florida score more than a TD here.  The Canes will lay it on at home.
Tmoney says Miami -21

Oregon at Stanford
Stanford sucks. They lost to UC Davis at home for heaven's sake. Oregon will slice through the Cardinal defense like a hot knife. Stanford will score, but not enough to keep up. Oregon will get back on track in Palo Alto.
Tmoney says Oregon -7

Football Betting in Mexico

Mexico is gearing up for the Cardinals and 49ers...and the betting associated with it. Betting is legal in Mexico, and American Football betting is a big business.

Does it surprise you that the largest sports parlor is owned by a public official - "The betting parlor business is dominated by Caliente, controlled by Tijuana Mayor Jorge Hank Rohn."

Only in Mexico.

NFL Picks Around the Web Week 4

Week 4 picks around the web:

Peter King
USA Today
Yahoo Experts
Sportsline Experts
Harmon Forecast on Sportsline
ESPN Experts
NFL.com game-by-game Analysis

College Picks Around the Web Week 5

Week 5 College Football picks from around the web:

USA Today
Yahoo Experts
Sportsline Experts
Harmon Forecast on Sportsline
Tony Mejia on Sportsline

Tuesday Night Football?

There is football on every night this week. I feel compelled to spend some money. How often can you bet on Tuesday night football?

Toledo at Fresno St.
These are 2 gun slinging teams. Toledo is ranked 17th and Fresno St. 25th in the nation in offense. Furthermore,  Fresno is ranked 108th in the nation against the pass and 86th in total defense. Its hard to judge Toledo given their sister's of the poor opponents.  While I can't pick a winner, I can see these teams going up and down. I'll give the OVER a shot.
Tmoney says OVER 63

TMQB 3

All good things must come to an end, but that was just an awful weekend of betting. The Broncos put the icing on the cake last night to make me feel lousy. Then I heard that the officials lost 52 seconds in the Steelers game. How does that happen in a league where they spend 2 minutes on replay to determine the spot of a ball?

Random Thoughts
-Its official, the Cards stink. The defense that kept them around last year is gone.
-Gruden has the Bucs back on track. I never saw that coming.
-I think the Jets are done.
-The Saints are worn out physically and emotionlly.
-LT looked unstoppable.
-I can't figure out the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, or Panthers.
-The Bengals offense is impressive.
-Janikowksi is a fat fuck. Stay out of the clubs.
-Tom Brady is pretty damn good. The Pats have the Steelers number.
-Will the real Peyton Manning step up?  Eli looks like the real deal for years to come.
-I am looking forward to the USC-Arizona St. game this weekend. The Sun Devils in Tempe have probably the best shot of anyone this year of making a game of it.
-Michigan St. continues to roll, they might just have the upper hand against Michigan for the first time in a long while.
-The Big 10 looks pretty good despite the losses for the elite. Minnesota versus Penn St. this weekend could be interesting.

Weekly Tally
NFL Games That I Bet: 2-4
NFL Overall: 4-10 - It was painful.
NCAA: 4-3

YTD
NFL: 26-19-1 overall, 12-9 in games that I bet
NCAA: 17-18

Mile High Matchup

For every 11 win week there is a 4 win week. Thank God that 2 of those wins were ones that I bet (2-3 on games I bet).  The crappy dogs (49ers, Browns, Packers, Dolphins, Raiders) all covered against better teams.

More painful than the 4 wins was the Steelers loss. It's one thing to lose, but to lose to bonehead plays makes me lose sleep. If I had to point one finger, it has to be at Randle El. Not only did he make the stupidest decision possible by trying to pitch the ball at the end of a 40 yard pass play, but he failed to come back to the ball on a key 3rd down at the goal line and he dropped several catchable balls that were right in his hands.  Belichick owns the Steelers.

Kansas City at Denver
I still don't believe that the Broncos are any good, but they are tough at home. I believe that KC is the better team with better talent and a better coach. I have to take the points (whether it is +3 at -130 or +2 at -110) and hope I can get to 5 wins for the week.
Tmoney says Chiefs +3

Tmoney NFL Week 3 Picks

My NFL picks have been red hot and I am bound to equalize to the downside so proceed with caution. The lines are squeezing down and its getting harder to see the clear winners.

Games I Am Betting

Browns at Colts
I am thinking this is the week Manning gets on track against the league's 2nd worst defense in yards per game.
Tmoney says Colts -14

Jaguars at Jets
The Jags are still one of my favorite teams to make some noise (and making me some money). They are starting to show some kinks at left tackle and safety, but I think they will expose the Jets as the fraud that they are.
Tmoney says Jags +2.5

Bengals at Bears
The Bengals are en fuego on offense, leading the league at 462 YPG and 36 minutes of TOP. They have been given credit for their defensive improvement, yet rank in the bottom 3rd of the league. I have to admit to not believing in the Bears before the season, but I think they can run on the Bengals while their defense may keep Palmer in check.
Tmoney says Bears +3

Saints at Vikings
The Saints are getting worn out traveling. It was obvious in watching them on Monday night. Culpepper can't continue on his downward spiral, can he? I think Tice rights the ship in this must win game for the Vikes.
Tmoney says Vikings -3.5

Cowboys at 49ers
I try to avoid 2 things in NFL betting: laying points on the road and betting on a team that goes on the road after a Monday night game. However, the 49ers have the league's worst defense, giving up an average of almost 500 yards per game, including 379 in the air. Parcells is fuming and they are going to run the 49ers into submission.
Tmoney says Cowboys -6.5

Best of the Rest for the Office Pool, but Not Betting 'em

Pats at Steelers
I picked at against my Steelers twice and I won't do it a 3rd time.
Tmoney says Steelers -3

Bucs at Packers
Did you know Tampa has the #1 defense in the league?
Tmoney says Bucs -3.5

Falcons at Bills
A good defensive battle.
Tmoney says Falcons +2.5

Raiders at Eagles
8 is tempting, but when in doubt, take the better team.
Tmoney says Eagles -8

Titans at Rams
The Titans are better than you think.
Tmoney says Titans +6.5

Cards at Seahawks
If the Cards are going to be as good as advertised, they can't go 0-3.
Tmoney says Cards +6

Panthers at Dolphins
The Panthers are too good.
Tmoney says Panthers -3.5

Giants at Chargers
I have a hunch.
Tmoney says Giants +6

Chiefs at Broncos
Check back Monday!

High Five

Air Force did indeed put up its 250 yards rushing last night, but there was no defense. They still scraped back in to cover in the 4th. That got us to 15-15 on the season in college.

Iowa St. at Army
The theory is simple in this one. Army ain't that good. Iowa St. is coming off its big upset over Iowa and they are better than people thought. I think they roll tonight.
Tmoney says Iowa St. -17

Penn St. at Northwestern
I grew up loving the Nittany Lions, Todd Blackledge, Curt Warner, et al. I thought PSU would be better this year with their stingy defense. However, they have been disappointing so far this year against teams like South Florida and Cincy.  Northwestern has beaten Penn St. outright each of the past 2 years, both times as a dog. I think they may have Penn St.'s number.
Tmoney says Northwestern +8

Michigan St. at Illinois
This is a sandwich game for the Spartans, in between Notre Dame and Michigan. Illinois has showed some moxy this year, coming back against Rutgers and covering at a good Cal team. Illinois to cover at home in a high scoring battle.
Tmoney says Illinois +10.5

East Carolina at West Virginia
This comes down to one set of stats. West Virgina is averaging 270 ypg rushing and East Carolina is giving up a whopping 284 ypg rushing. That adds up to disaster. WVU has also blown out the Pirates in each of the last 2 seasons.
Tmoney says WVU -22

Arizona St. at Oregon St.
I have come to like ASU quite a bit. They are averaging 630 YPG this year and are a real contender in the Pac 10.They are clearly better than the Beavers and I will lay the points on the road.
Tmoney says ASU -7