sharpjuice

It's Go Time

We have been waiting for 9 months, and we finally have some games that count with 8 NCAA I-A games on the calendar tomorrow.  I already made a case for the Eastern Michigan Eagles, and here are 3 more picks for tomorrow night.

Temple at Arizona St.
Temple is bad, and they got worse on Monday when they lost 5 starters to academic ineligibility. ASU's new quarterback Sam Keller has shown last year he is the real deal, and the expectations are high in the desert. Although the starting tailback Loren Wade murdered someone in March, Keller has plenty of skilled targets through the air, including Derek Hagan and Zach Miller. I am betting they light up the reeling Owls. Tmoney says ASU -31.

Idaho at Washington St.
This is another case of a very, very bad team going on the road for the opener. Idaho gave up nearly 40 points a game last year and probably will have trouble again stopping anyone this year. Washington St. returns 8 offensive starters and should be able to put points on the board. The question is can Idaho score? Washington St. beat Idaho last year 49-8, and I expect a similar result. Tmoney says Washington St. -27.5.

Central Florida at South Carolina
Will we see the fun and gun work this year with the Gamecocks? Not sure with the personnel they have, but even if we do, they will not be efficient in their first game. What I do know is that UCF is a bad team. They ranked 113 in scoring offense and 100 in scoring defense in 2004, and they lost most of their top skilled talent. I don't think that the Golden Knights can exceed their scoring average of 15 points in this game, while SC averaged only 22 points last year with Troy Williamson and Demetrius Summers.  The Gamecocks will win, but will have trouble working out the kinks on offense. Tmoney says UNDER 49.
Cover.com analysis

Tmoney says EMU +10 over Cincy (See previous post below)

Happy betting.

YTD Record:
NFL - 11-6
NCAA - 0-0

Chris Mortensen on Crack

I was reading Chris Mortensen's chat wrap and he had 2 outrageous comments that make me question his real knowledge of football.

Chris Mortensen: I expect the Bears to be a .500 team, at least. If Orton plays exceptionally well for a rookie, they could go to 9-7 or 10-6.

and

Chris Mortensen: That being said, even though he (Matt Jones) will have some impact as a rookie, it's going to be another year or so before he becomes full bloom as a potential T.O./Moss type.

Mort - Bears 7-9 if they are LUCKY, and Jones will NEVER be TO or Moss.  Go get in line for your Razorback season tix and pass me the pipe.

Let's Go Eagles (EMU that is)

I have been scouring the web and my college yearbooks looking for my first college play tomorrow night when 8 NCAA games are on the schedule. Several look interesting - high-powered ASU versus the kicked-in-the-gut Temple Owls, a solid Wash St. squad hosting lowly Idaho, and a better then you think Vandy getting points at Wake. But, after some study, there was one that stood out.

Eastern Michigan at Cincinnati
This looks like a dog on the surface, and thank god we don't get to watch the misery on TV. Here are the facts:
-Eastern Michigan had the 21st ranked offense in the nation last year, and is returning its 5th year senior quarterback Matt Bohnet. Bohnet connected for over 2,800 yards last year, including 84 receptions  for 1,257 yards to returning receiver Eric Deslauriers.
-EMU should be able to put up some yards and points against the Cincinnati defense that is only returning 3 starters. UC will have many freshmen and soph's on the field.
-Cincinnati starts red shirt freshman quarterback Dustin Grutza who has never taken a snap. You may recall that stellar QB Gino Guidugli carried UC for the 4 years he started.
-The UC offense only returns 3 starters, and only 1 on the O-line.  While EMU had a very porous defense last year (ranked 114), it could be an ugly exhibition when UC has the ball. UC will definitely be running the ball. The key question is which young line wins in the trenches.

I believe that the Eagles will be able to move the ball and score, probably putting up circa 30 points. UC may be able to run the ball against EMU, and if you believe this, maybe look at the total of 60. I am not sure that the youth at QB and upfront with the Bearcats is enough to make up the 10 point spread. Tmoney says Eastern Michigan +10.

Local coverage:
EMU from Ann Arbor News
UC from Cincy Post

I am still looking at a few more games, and may slide another pick in...check back.

Lines Are A Changin'

The college football lines are moving fast and furious, in some cases over 5 points.

The most noticeable example is the Arizona St. - Temple game. Temple announced yesterday they are losing 7 players to academics this season, including 5 starters. The line quickly jumped from -26 to -31 in favor of Arizona St. The Sun Devils were already expected to thump the Owls in the desert heat with the vertical passing game, but now it might just get even uglier.

In most cases, however, it is the sharp money moving the lines, not just the news. Some examples where the money is moving the number:
Cincy went from -12 to -8.5 over Eastern Michigan
Ohio St. dropped from -17 to -13.5 over Miami, OH
Colorado moved from -9.5 to -7 against rival Colorado St.
USC pumped up from -31.5 to -35 over Hawaii
Bowling Green started at +7.5 a few weeks ago, moved to +5 last week, and is now +2.5 against Wisconsin
Va Tech went from -6 to -3 over NC St.

Watch the NCAA lines carefully and make sure you don't lose your value if they move too much. For example, I LOVED Miami, OH at +17, but at less than 2 TDs, it starts to even out and you start to like the other side. Like anything that you buy, don't overpay.

I'll be back tomorrow with my first college picks.

48 Hours Until The Real Thing

The Rams actually surprised me last night.  They looked really good. If that line stays healthy, Bulger will be ripping defenses all year (at least in a dome). That brings us to 11-6 on the preseason. Now we need to get to the real thing.

I am very excited for the start of college games this Thursday. I will be making my first picks tomorrow, so come check them out.  In the mean time, a few sources to check out and study up:

Harmon Forecast on Sportsline - If you haven't checked it out in the past, The Harmon Forecast is a 49 year old analytical system that predicts the score of every game every week. Traditionally, the system is over 0.500. I don't use it strictly, but I sometimes compare my picks to get a gut check.

Expert Picks on Sportsline - They used to pick against the spread, but it looks likes CBS might have gone Disney on us and taken out the lines.

Sagarin Ratings on USA Today - The Sagarin ratings are another analytical system based on historical performance and strength of schedule under which you can theoretically predict the line of any matchup.

USA Today Matchups - USA Today compiles good summary data on each match-up every week including stats and trends.

Sportsbook Lines and Odds - Sportsbook summarizes where their odds are against Mirage and Stardust, as well as showing the stats on where the betting public money is currently placed.

See you tomorrow with some money makers.

YTD Record
NFL Preseason: 11-6
NFL: 0-0
NCAA: 0-0

Greatest show on turf

I bet the Steelers on Friday just to illustrate gambler's rule #1 - Never bet your favorite team. Well, that's not exactly why I picked the Steelers, but you can still use my mistakes to learn a lesson about betting on emotion. After watching the Steelers on Friday, I am starting to feel this season may be closer to 2003 than 2004. The Steelers are surely not going 15-1 this year, and they probably will be lucky to have double-digit wins in a division where the Ravens and Bengals are closing in.  With expectations up, the lines will be up as well, so study carefully early this season before laying points with the Steelers.

The Browns and Chargers kept me in it Friday and we went 2-2, bringing us to 10-6 on the preseason. Only 1 game and 1 week left of preseason before we hit the real thing. I am particularly excited for the start of college on Thursday, as I believe the early season variance in the NCAA lines gives bettors the chance to win some real dough during September. Look for my picks later this week.

Now for Monday night - Rams at Lions, where the Lions are -4 at home. With the return of Tom Nutten, the Rams will have 4 of 5 starters from 2000 back in the starting O-line tonight, and hopefully for most of 2005. Rams fans will look forward to forgetting about the revolving door known as John St. Clair. Bulger and the Rams could again carve up the league through the air this year. I am not sure why the Lions are -4 on the turf, but let's ride the dogs again. Tmoney says Rams +4

Tmoney is 10-6 in the preseason.

And a Favorite

I just can't resist it. I need to bet my Steelers. The theory is simple - I love them and I can't get enough. Ehhhr, I mean, the theory is simple - a very good team trying to win the important 3rd preseason game playing starters into the 3rd quarter versus a very mediocre team who can't score.  Home court doesn't matter here. Lay the wood on the Steelers. Tmoney says Steelers -2.

Tmoney is 8-4 in the preseason.

Dog pound - 8/26 Picks

The Jags showed again they have trouble punching it in when it counts and the dogs keep on working for me. Thanks Byron. For our weekend games, I see some more lines that seem a little healthier than expected.

Bengals at Eagles
The Bengals are under the big tent of the TO circus tonight, and on national TV to boot. The Bengals are the darlings that everyone likes as their 2005 darkhorse. We will see firsthand how they look against the NFC champs. I actually like the Bengals to hold their ground and do some damage against the birds as the starters match-up in the first half, and Kitna will outduel McMahon in the 2nd half. Tmoney says Bengals +4.5

Chargers at Vikings
6.5 points seems like a lot to me for 2 pretty good teams. I think the Chargers will hang in just fine, and could even win this outright. Nate Kaeding can't miss field goals indoors, can he? Tmoney says Chargers +6.5

Panthers at Browns
Are you ready to crown the 2-0 Browns as champs yet?  They have found a nack for winning the preseason games.  The Panthers are solid in the preseason, but I like Charlie Frye to keep the Browns in it late again. Tmoney says Browns +6

Tmoney is 8-4 in the preseason.

What can Matt Schaub do for you?

The enigmatic Seahawks let us down on Monday, which could likely to be a precursor for 2005. Let's see if we can get it back in Jacksonville tonight.

As Covers.com notes, the sharp action has been on the total, as OVER money initially pushed it from 37 to 39 (it has settled back at 38). These 2 teams are actually very similar - stout D combined with sometimes stagnant offense not shy to rely on the run.  You are going to see at least a full half of starters tonight, which should make for some pretty good football from 2 teams expected to make the playoffs. You also have 2 sides with pretty solid back-up squads. With the 3rd preseason game (4th for Atlanta) always being the game of which coaches expect the most, this might closely resemble a regular season game.

The preseason play that has been working for me has been a lean toward the dogs and tonight is no different.  I expect a close game that either side can win. I also like Matt Schaub keeping it together in the 2nd half.  Take the points and the birds overs the cats.  Tmoney says Falcons +3.

Tmoney is 7-4 in the preseason.

Pac 10 Preview

The Pac 10 is already a race for 2nd place. No one, and I mean NO ONE, has anyone other than USC at the top of the pile. In fact, you need to lay $25 to win a $1 on the Trojans to win the conference. Hopefully Leinart is not still sulking over the $50 million contract he left on the table to stay at USC for one more year of chasing tail. The real debate is whether Oregon, Cal, Arizona St., or maybe even my UCLA Bruins can sneak into 2nd place (I like the Ducks). Washington St. seems solid and Mike Stoops has Arizona on the rise (relatively).  Oregon St. is declining fast with all the lost talent, and Stanford and Washington are bringing up the tail.

Terry Bowden (Yahoo) and Stewart Mandel (SI) both break down the Pac 10.

Danny Sheridan's odds to win the Pac 10:
Southern California 1:25
California 6:1
Arizona State 6:1
Oregon 10:1
UCLA 15:1
Oregon State 25:1
Washington State 25:1
Stanford 50:1
Washington 75:1
Arizona 100:1

Only 8 more days to kick-off!