sharpjuice

NCAA Win Total Bets

You can bet just about anything these days.  If you are anxious enough to bet on the NFL pre-season, you might want to consider betting on NCAA win total over-unders, a reasonably new offering.  Temple has the lowest total in the nation at 1.5 wins while USC is at 11, which requires them to go undefeated to go over.

I think I will wait until September 1 to make my first normal game bet, rather than wait for almost 5 months to see if I am going to get paid.

Around the Horn - AFC East

There is little doubt The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East, but the Jets are solid, and the Bills still have a strong D.  While Miami will be better, they still are missing the personnel to contend.  Pro Football Weekly breaks down the AFC East.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the AFC East:
Patriots 11 -115
Jets 9.5 +105
Bills 8.5 +105
Dolphins 6 -130

Patriots
I have watched them throttle my Steelers twice in the past 4 years in the AFC Championship game and it is really hard to ever pick against them.  The loss of Weiss and Crennel as coordinators has to have some effect. I have some doubt that Belichick's defensive mind (on a part time basis) can really replace Weiss' genius without losing a step.  Furthermore, its hard to think that the loss of defensive leaders Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Ty Law, and Roman Phifer will not negatively impact the D.  They are still going to win the division, but won't cover the win total of 11.   Tmoney says 10-6.

Jets
Jets fans are relieved that O-coordinator Paul Hackett is long gone and the team will open it up this year under Pennington's healthy shoulder.  The D will be equally as solid as last year, despite the loss of Ferguson and Cowart.  Coles for Moss and Nugent for Brien are upgrades.  The only vunerability is at RT, where 2nd year man Adrian Jones must step in.  The Jets will be solid again. Tmoney says 9-7.

Bills
Hey Losman, you ain't no Roethlisberger.  But more important, the O-line isn't that good so Losman won't have the protection to get the job done.  The D is still solid and they will stay in most games.  If they have any injuries at all at QB, O-line or RB, it will be tough to score. Tmoney says 7-9.

Dolphins
I have said here before that the Dolphins will be better this year if not for Saban's discipline alone.  The talent is actually better, with an improved and healthy line, and 2 solid RBs.  Gus Frerotte can only be better than the 2-headed monster known as AJ Feedler.   Tmoney says 6-10.

More
Football Outsiders East Picks
Yahoo AFC East
Sporting News AFC East

Media Picks Vols in SEC

The Tennessee Vols were chosen by the media to win the SEC at the SEC Media Day, edging out Florida, LSU, and Georgia. Additionally, 1st and 2nd All-SEC teams were also named.

Apparently, no one told the writers to check the Vegas odds where LSU and Florida are favored by the books.

LSU	7/4
Florida	2/1
Tennessee	9/4
Georgia	5/1
Alabama	15/2
Auburn	8/1
Arkansas	18/1
South Carolina	20/1
Mississippi	45/1
Kentucky	85/1
Mississippi State	50/1
Vanderbilt	250/1

Oddjack City

Thanks to AJ over Oddjack for throwing out some pub for Sharpjuice.  Oddjack is the new title from the blogging media empire of Gawker.  Run by noted journalist AJ Daulerio, a founder and editor of The Black Table, Oddjack provides an entertaining perspective about all things betting, from poker to horses to celebrity happenings.  As they say at Oddjack, be sure to "tip your dealer" - let AJ know where you see the heat on the web.

More NFL Predictions

Many of the football rags are making their Superbowl XL predictions.  The Sporting News, PFW, and Street & Smith's all have the Eagles beating the Colts. Athlon Sports actually has the Ravens over the Eagles. As mentioned here before, the Vikings are this year's Seahawks, i.e. the flavor do jour.  In fact, the venerable Peter King has the Patriots over the Vikings - 30-17.  Of course, Peter thinks the Bears might be good this year too.

If you are thinking of putting some money behind some of these picks, look no furhter than Lindy's prediction last year - Chiefs over the Rams in Superbowl XXXVIIII.

More Fantasy Rankings

Fox Sports has their pre-season fantasy rankings up, check 'em out.  Peyton is appropriately up at #4, but what is Daunte and Donovan doing down at 17 and 24? There are only a few go-to QB's that put the numbers up week in and week out.  I'd also be wary of investing in the drug lord Jamal Lewis so high.

Around the Horn: NFC East

The contenders in the NFC East have all made moves to try to narrow the gap with the Eagles. It may not be enough though, as I agree with Vegas that Philly will lead the way again.

Here are the Vegas pre-season win total lines for the NFC East:
Eagles 11.5 -130
Cowboys 8.5 -110
Redskins 7.5 -105
Giants 6.5 +110

Eagles
With TO on the field, the Eagles don't lose any ground at all.  Tmoney says 12-4.

Cowboys
They have gone younger on D and improved the QB. However, the WRs are old and stiff, Julius Jones may be the next big star but is brittle, and the D is learning a new 3-4 scheme. Tmoney says 8-8.

Redskins
What many don't realize is that the Redskins were the only non-playoff team in the top 5 of most defensive categories last year.  Unfortunately, the offense was anemic and I am not sure it got much better.  However, D wins games, or at least keeps them close. If Ramsey can avoid the dumb mistakes, and the O-line stays healthy, they will be in every game. Tmoney says 7-9.

Giants
They can only get better from last year.  The O will be solid with Eli and my boy Plax, and an improved line.  However, I don't see much on the defensive side, and that probably means a poor season.  Tmoney says 6-10.

More
Football Outsiders East Picks
Yahoo NFC East

Fantasy Mailbag

The sage advice is always to load up on running backs early in the draft as they are a scarce commodity, and normally I agree.  But Peyton Manning is a freak and is poised to put up sick numbers again.  I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on him at picks 2-4. Check out some other fantasy analysis at Mike Harmon's Mailbag.

NFL Win Totals

Now that teams are hitting camps, most of you are getting horny to lay down some wagers.  The team win totals are becoming more popular bets, and certainly smarter than betting volatile pre-season games. The Vegas Sun highlights some of the teams that are seeing early win total action.  For instance, the public is expecting last year's under-achievers, the Dolphins, Cardinals and Chiefs, to beat expectations this year.

For me, I like the Broncos UNDER 8.5 wins at +115.  The defense is an entirely new unit, Jake is sloppy, and I think Mr. Arrogant Mike Shanahan is finally going to get caught this year. Lay the wood against the Broncos.

Trendy NFL Predictions

Many handicappers, as well as the media, are already locking into the early stories in the NFL.  For instance, just about everyone has the Vikings as the prime contender in the NFC based on its defensive additions.  Also, everyone suspects that Oakland will put up 40 points every game with Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan solidifying the O...and giving up 40 points a game with its inexperienced defense. 

As a Steeler fan, I know all too well it is impossible to project the season's outcome going in to training camp.  Two years ago, coming off a 10-5-1 season and a close playoff loss at Tennessee, everyone projected the Steelers at the top of the AFC North.  Injuries to the offensive line resulted in a 6-10 campaign. This set up no expectations last year, and a 15-1 season, thanks to a healthy line and depth at many positions.

Bodog jumps on the side of the Vikings and Dolphins offenses and the Minnesota and Dallas defenses.  Beyond the obvious, I believe Miami will be better than expected...how can they get worse.  Saban will have some discipline instilled and the talent is better this year.  I would look to take the points in the early games. I would look at the Dolphins in week 1 at home against the Broncos.